Clinical encounter heterogeneity and methods for resolving in networked EHR data: a study from N3C and RECOVER programs.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical encounter data are heterogeneous and vary greatly from institution to institution. These problems of variance affect interpretability and usability of clinical encounter data for analysis. These problems are magnified when multisite electronic health record (EHR) data are networked together. This article presents a novel, generalizable method for resolving encounter heterogeneity for analysis by combining related atomic encounters into composite "macrovisits." MATERIALS AND METHODS: Encounters were composed of data from 75 partner sites harmonized to a common data model as part of the NIH Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery Initiative, a project of the National Covid Cohort Collaborative. Summary statistics were computed for overall and site-level data to assess issues and identify modifications. Two algorithms were developed to refine atomic encounters into cleaner, analyzable longitudinal clinical visits. RESULTS: Atomic inpatient encounters data were found to be widely disparate between sites in terms of length-of-stay (LOS) and numbers of OMOP CDM measurements per encounter. After aggregating encounters to macrovisits, LOS and measurement variance decreased. A subsequent algorithm to identify hospitalized macrovisits further reduced data variability. DISCUSSION: Encounters are a complex and heterogeneous component of EHR data and native data issues are not addressed by existing methods. These types of complex and poorly studied issues contribute to the difficulty of deriving value from EHR data, and these types of foundational, large-scale explorations, and developments are necessary to realize the full potential of modern real-world data. CONCLUSION: This article presents method developments to manipulate and resolve EHR encounter data issues in a generalizable way as a foundation for future research and analysis.

An integrated LSTM-HeteroRGNN model for interpretable opioid overdose risk prediction.

Opioid overdose (OD) has become a leading cause of accidental death in the United States, and overdose deaths reached a record high during the COVID-19 pandemic. Combating the opioid crisis requires targeting high-need populations by identifying individuals at risk of OD. While deep learning emerges as a powerful method for building predictive models using large scale electronic health records (EHR), it is challenged by the complex intrinsic relationships among EHR data. Further, its utility is limited by the lack of clinically meaningful explainability, which is necessary for making informed clinical or policy decisions using such models. In this paper, we present LIGHTED, an integrated deep learning model combining long short term memory (LSTM) and graph neural networks (GNN) to predict patients' OD risk. The LIGHTED model can incorporate the temporal effects of disease progression and the knowledge learned from interactions among clinical features. We evaluated the model using Cerner's Health Facts database with over 5 million patients. Our experiments demonstrated that the model outperforms traditional machine learning methods and other deep learning models. We also proposed a novel interpretability method by exploiting embeddings provided by GNNs to cluster patients and EHR features respectively, and conducted qualitative feature cluster analysis for clinical interpretations. Our study shows that LIGHTED can take advantage of longitudinal EHR data and the intrinsic graph structure of EHRs among patients to provide effective and interpretable OD risk predictions that may potentially improve clinical decision support.

Short- and Long-Term Recovery after Moderate/Severe AKI in Patients with and without COVID-19.

Background: Severe AKI is strongly associated with poor outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but data on renal recovery are lacking. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed these associations in 3299 hospitalized patients (1338 with COVID-19 and 1961 with acute respiratory illness but who tested negative for COVID-19). Uni- and multivariable analyses were used to study mortality and recovery after Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes Stages 2 and 3 AKI (AKI-2/3), and Machine Learning was used to predict AKI and recovery using admission data. Long-term renal function and other outcomes were studied in a subgroup of AKI-2/3 survivors. Results: Among the 172 COVID-19-negative patients with AKI-2/3, 74% had partial and 44% complete renal recovery, whereas 12% died. Among 255 COVID-19 positive patients with AKI-2/3, lower recovery and higher mortality were noted (51% partial renal recovery, 25% complete renal recovery, 24% died). On multivariable analysis, intensive care unit admission and acute respiratory distress syndrome were associated with nonrecovery, and recovery was significantly associated with survival in COVID-19-positive patients. With Machine Learning, we were able to predict recovery from COVID-19-associated AKI-2/3 with an average precision of 0.62, and the strongest predictors of recovery were initial arterial partial pressure of oxygen and carbon dioxide, serum creatinine, potassium, lymphocyte count, and creatine phosphokinase. At 12-month follow-up, among 52 survivors with AKI-2/3, 26% COVID-19-positive and 24% COVID-19-negative patients had incident or progressive CKD. Conclusions: Recovery from COVID-19-associated moderate/severe AKI can be predicted using admission data and is associated with severity of respiratory disease and in-hospital death. The risk of CKD might be similar between COVID-19-positive and -negative patients.

Characteristics, Outcomes, and Severity Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children in the US National COVID Cohort Collaborative.

Importance: Understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection in US children has been limited by the lack of large, multicenter studies with granular data. Objective: To examine the characteristics, changes over time, outcomes, and severity risk factors of children with SARS-CoV-2 within the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cohort study of encounters with end dates before September 24, 2021, was conducted at 56 N3C facilities throughout the US. Participants included children younger than 19 years at initial SARS-CoV-2 testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: Case incidence and severity over time, demographic and comorbidity severity risk factors, vital sign and laboratory trajectories, clinical outcomes, and acute COVID-19 vs multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), and Delta vs pre-Delta variant differences for children with SARS-CoV-2. Results: A total of 1 068 410 children were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 167 262 test results (15.6%) were positive (82 882 [49.6%] girls; median age, 11.9 [IQR, 6.0-16.1] years). Among the 10 245 children (6.1%) who were hospitalized, 1423 (13.9%) met the criteria for severe disease: mechanical ventilation (796 [7.8%]), vasopressor-inotropic support (868 [8.5%]), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (42 [0.4%]), or death (131 [1.3%]). Male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.21-1.56), Black/African American race (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06-1.47), obesity (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.01-1.41), and several pediatric complex chronic condition (PCCC) subcategories were associated with higher severity disease. Vital signs and many laboratory test values from the day of admission were predictive of peak disease severity. Variables associated with increased odds for MIS-C vs acute COVID-19 included male sex (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.33-1.90), Black/African American race (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.17-1.77), younger than 12 years (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.51-2.18), obesity (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.40-2.22), and not having a pediatric complex chronic condition (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80). The children with MIS-C had a more inflammatory laboratory profile and severe clinical phenotype, with higher rates of invasive ventilation (117 of 707 [16.5%] vs 514 of 8241 [6.2%]; P < .001) and need for vasoactive-inotropic support (191 of 707 [27.0%] vs 426 of 8241 [5.2%]; P < .001) compared with those who had acute COVID-19. Comparing children during the Delta vs pre-Delta eras, there was no significant change in hospitalization rate (1738 [6.0%] vs 8507 [6.2%]; P = .18) and lower odds for severe disease (179 [10.3%] vs 1242 [14.6%]) (decreased by a factor of 0.67; 95% CI, 0.57-0.79; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of US children with SARS-CoV-2, there were observed differences in demographic characteristics, preexisting comorbidities, and initial vital sign and laboratory values between severity subgroups. Taken together, these results suggest that early identification of children likely to progress to severe disease could be achieved using readily available data elements from the day of admission. Further work is needed to translate this knowledge into improved outcomes.

Clinical Characterization and Prediction of Clinical Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among US Adults Using Data From the US National COVID Cohort Collaborative.

Importance: The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is a centralized, harmonized, high-granularity electronic health record repository that is the largest, most representative COVID-19 cohort to date. This multicenter data set can support robust evidence-based development of predictive and diagnostic tools and inform clinical care and policy. Objectives: To evaluate COVID-19 severity and risk factors over time and assess the use of machine learning to predict clinical severity. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a retrospective cohort study of 1 926 526 US adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection (polymerase chain reaction >99% or antigen <1%) and adult patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection who served as controls from 34 medical centers nationwide between January 1, 2020, and December 7, 2020, patients were stratified using a World Health Organization COVID-19 severity scale and demographic characteristics. Differences between groups over time were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Random forest and XGBoost models were used to predict severe clinical course (death, discharge to hospice, invasive ventilatory support, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). Main Outcomes and Measures: Patient demographic characteristics and COVID-19 severity using the World Health Organization COVID-19 severity scale and differences between groups over time using multivariable logistic regression. Results: The cohort included 174 568 adults who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (mean [SD] age, 44.4 [18.6] years; 53.2% female) and 1 133 848 adult controls who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 (mean [SD] age, 49.5 [19.2] years; 57.1% female). Of the 174 568 adults with SARS-CoV-2, 32 472 (18.6%) were hospitalized, and 6565 (20.2%) of those had a severe clinical course (invasive ventilatory support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, death, or discharge to hospice). Of the hospitalized patients, mortality was 11.6% overall and decreased from 16.4% in March to April 2020 to 8.6% in September to October 2020 (P = .002 for monthly trend). Using 64 inputs available on the first hospital day, this study predicted a severe clinical course using random forest and XGBoost models (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.87 for both) that were stable over time. The factor most strongly associated with clinical severity was pH; this result was consistent across machine learning methods. In a separate multivariable logistic regression model built for inference, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.03 per year; 95% CI, 1.03-1.04), male sex (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.51-1.69), liver disease (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08-1.34), dementia (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.13-1.41), African American (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.20) and Asian (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.12-1.57) race, and obesity (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.27-1.46) were independently associated with higher clinical severity. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that COVID-19 mortality decreased over time during 2020 and that patient demographic characteristics and comorbidities were associated with higher clinical severity. The machine learning models accurately predicted ultimate clinical severity using commonly collected clinical data from the first 24 hours of a hospital admission.

Association of Proteinuria and Hematuria with Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is strongly associated with poor outcomes in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but data on the association of proteinuria and hematuria are limited to non-US populations. In addition, admission and in-hospital measures for kidney abnormalities have not been studied separately. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study aimed to analyze these associations in 321 patients sequentially admitted between March 7, 2020 and April 1, 2020 at Stony Brook University Medical Center, New York. We investigated the association of proteinuria, hematuria, and AKI with outcomes of inflammation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and in-hospital death. We used ANOVA, t test, χ2 test, and Fisher's exact test for bivariate analyses and logistic regression for multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Three hundred patients met the inclusion criteria for the study cohort. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that admission proteinuria was significantly associated with risk of in-hospital AKI (OR 4.71, 95% CI 1.28-17.38), while admission hematuria was associated with ICU admission (OR 4.56, 95% CI 1.12-18.64), IMV (OR 8.79, 95% CI 2.08-37.00), and death (OR 18.03, 95% CI 2.84-114.57). During hospitalization, de novo proteinuria was significantly associated with increased risk of death (OR 8.94, 95% CI 1.19-114.4, p = 0.04). In-hospital AKI increased (OR 27.14, 95% CI 4.44-240.17) while recovery from in-hospital AKI decreased the risk of death (OR 0.001, 95% CI 0.001-0.06). CONCLUSION: Proteinuria and hematuria both at the time of admission and during hospitalization are associated with adverse clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.